Plant Pathol J > Volume 28(2); 2012 > Article
The Plant Pathology Journal 2012;28(2):172-184.
DOI:    Published online June 30, 2012.
A Forecast Model for the First Occurrence of Phytophthora Blight on Chili Pepper after Overwintering
Ki Seok Do, Wee Soo Kang, Eun Woo Park
An infection risk model for Phytophthora blight on chili pepper was developed to estimate the first date of disease occurrence in the field. The model consisted of three parts including estimation of zoosporangium formation, soil water content, and amount of active inoculum in soil. Daily weather data on air temperature, relative humidity and rainfall, and the soil texture data of local areas were used to estimate infection risk level that was quantified as the accumulated amount of active inoculum during the prior three days. Based on the analysis on 190 sets of weather and disease data, it was found that the threshold infection risk of 224 could be an appropriate criterion for determining the primary infection date. The 95% confidence interval for the difference between the estimated date of primary infection and the observed date of first disease occurrence was 8
Key Words: disease forecast, infection risk, pepper, Phytophthora blight, primary infection

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